OK Donald: Now it's Irans turn...
On June 22nd, the United States, goaded by its so-called 'garrison state' in the Middle East, crossed a line it cannot uncross. Thist morning, B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk bunker buster missiles struck Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. President Trump called it a "spectacular military success” that had “completely obliterated” Iran’s enrichment capacity. He warned Tehran to “make peace now" and "come to the table to make a deal” a shaming insistence that an attacked nation must negotiate in defeat
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This claim should sound absurd even to non-specialists. You don’t bomb a sovereign nation, destroy critical infrastructure, and demand they come to 'the table' as Trump bizarrely did in multiple Truth Social posts and public addresses. That’s not diplomatic strategy; it’s extortion masked as statecraft. It’s unmoored from international law and logic and it reveals the paradox of imperial bullying: the more you demand peace while unleashing violence, the more hollow your demands sound.
Iran is not innocent. The regime is theocratic, brutal, misogynistic, and unforgiving toward dissent. Its Revolutionary Guard and proxy networks have fuelled regional wars for decades. But Israel is no better. And though the shouty over-platformed representatives on the media may claim this is a false equivalence and once again throw in the busted flush of antisemitism into the mix lets look at this: a nuclear-armed apartheid state under an extremist government that funnels American cash into settler violence, sidelines international law, and uses military might to crush Palestinians. There's no flase equivalence here - they are two cheeks of the same arse. Two theocracies of different brands: one clerical, the other messianic - both embedded in sociopathic norms where civilians are expendable and atrocities are framed as 'self-defence'.
Crucially, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirms that, as of mid‑2025, Iran has 'no nuclear weapons program' . While Iran holds enough uranium enriched up to 60%, some 400 kg, that's still not weapons-grade, and no formal decision to weaponise has been detected.
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An earlier IAEA investigation confirmed Iran’s past nuclear weapon-related research ended in 2003, and none since
Dir. Gen. Grossi keeps warning that there’s no proof of diversion into a weapons program. At best, Iran is a threshold nuclear state, not a nuclear weapons state. Israel, on the other hand, has refused to sign the NPT, keeps Dimona off-limits to any inspections and is estimated to possess up to 90 warheads. That makes Israel the only undeclared nuclear power in the world - a fact routinely ignored in Western commentary. Israel accuses Iran of nuclear ambitions while hiding its own arsenal in plain sight. That’s not deterrence; it’s hypocrisy.
Yet now, Israel has launched an outright bombing campaign, first through covert action and proxy warfare, then openly via U.S. airstrikes prefacing it with assertions against possible threats that have no basis in public evidence. And Trump, rather than acting as a rational broker, has publicly demanded Iran stop resisting, offering 'a deal' after demolishing its facilities
It's a slapdash plea meant to make Iran disarm after being bombed, a position so delusional that even his own national security adviser admitted, 'all options are on the table' reddit.com.
This arrogant posture is why Iran will never negotiate now. The regime, as reactionary as it is, remembers how the U.S. tore up the 2015 JCPOA once Trump withdrew in 2018. Why should they trust a deal under duress, just days after facing bombs and threats? Iran refuses to talk until strikes stop. Supreme Leader Khamenei, who issued a fatwa forbidding nuclear weapons, and his advisors argue they will not be bullied into submission.
If Iran does retaliate. Most likely it will have to respond large. This will involve striking Dimona, Tel Aviv, and coordinating with Hezbollah and Houthi actions in Yemen. It will be following a consistent strategy: asymmetry, regional theatre and tit-for-tat escalation, not all-out war. Tel Aviv has already tasted direct Iranian missile fire for the first time. Hezbollah, who are not a spent force still have rockets could still rain on northern Israel, while Houthi forces could very well sever undersea internet cables, crippling global data flows. It won’t be Gaza revisited; it will be regional war on multiple fronts, affecting Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Europe, and beyond. Dimona is especially dangerous: a strike there, even a near miss, could shatter containment and release radioactive fallout over urban centres and farmland. If that taboo is broken, Israel might respond with tactical nukes. That’s not theory, it’s been quietly debated within Israeli military circles for years. The escalation that Trump and his advisors think they can manage by tweeting and demanding 'peace now' is a recipe for global ruin. The world is about to learn, not from rational actors, but from ideologically driven theocracies unafraid to flout red lines. And they’ll flout them because years of impunity on one side and unjust aggression on the other have finally flipped the script. If Iran answers with fire, it won’t be madness. It will be balance.
So lets war-game this response using a plausible but hypothetical analysis:
A few days days after the U.S. Air Force struck Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, the Islamic Republic responds: not with a single retaliatory blow, but with a choreographed, region-wide assault. The strategy is to overstretch Israeli and U.S. defences, retaliate in kind against military and nuclear targets, and cripple Western logistics and confidence without declaring full-scale war. This is not irrational escalation. It is cold calculation, a show of asymmetrical reach, waged through state assets and proxy forces alike.
Phase 1: Dimona and the air war
At 02:15 Israeli time, Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force launches two dozen medium-range ballistic missiles, primarily Fateh-110s and Zulfiqars, at Israel’s Dimona nuclear complex. It’s not a symbolic strike, the warheads are precision-guided and bunker-penetrating, selected to mirror the munitions used by the U.S. against Iran’s Fordow site days earlier. Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow-3 systems intercept most of the missiles, but three reach their targets, damaging a cooling facility, causing localised fire, and prompting partial evacuation of civilian areas in the Negev. There is no confirmed radiation release, but the psychological impact is enormous. Iran’s message is clear: What you do to our nuclear sites, we will do to yours.
Phase 2: Hezbollah opens the Northern Front
Following the devastating 2024 war, Hezbollah emerged significantly weakened but far from defeated. The Israeli military’s overwhelming air superiority and precision strikes had severely damaged Hezbollah’s rocket stockpiles, command infrastructure, and tunnel networks. The group’s leadership suffered casualties, and its logistical lines were disrupted by Israeli covert operations inside Lebanon and Syria.
Despite these setbacks, Hezbollah’s core fighting capacity remains intact, albeit with a clear shift in doctrine and tactics. Rather than launching a large-scale rocket barrage or deep incursions as in previous conflicts, Hezbollah has moved toward a more selective, attritional approach that prioritises sustainability over showy displays of firepower.
So, at nearly the same moment, Hezbollah launches over 1,500 rockets from southern Lebanon, targeting Haifa, Kiryat Shmona, and even the edges of Tel Aviv. Dozens are intercepted, but key infrastructure is hit, including oil depots and rail lines. Civilian panic sets in. Meanwhile, Hezbollah's elite Radwan Forces attempt limited incursions across the border in Metula and Misgav Am. The IDF pushes them back, but not before several Israeli soldiers are killed, and the illusion of a “'sealed northern border' evaporates.
Phase 3: HAMAS: wounded but active
Though pummelled by months of Israeli bombardment, Hamas’ Qassam Brigades join the attack. From southern Gaza, they fire dozens of short-range rockets, targeting Ashkelon and Sderot. Simultaneously, armed drone swarms target IDF artillery emplacements, some launched from tunnels barely operational after last year’s siege. Most drones are intercepted, and Hamas cannot sustain the barrage. But they contribute to the multi-theatre overload, forcing the IDF to thin out response units in the south.
Phase 4: The Houthis cut the world's cables
At 04:30 local time, in the Red Sea, the Houthis detonate previously placed charges on undersea internet cables linking Europe, East Africa, and Asia. The result: catastrophic disruption of data traffic, latency issues across financial markets, and military command lag in the Middle East. This cyber-infrastructure attack isn’t flashy, but it’s devastating, especially for Israel, whose cloud-based defence architecture suddenly sees delays in processing satellite feeds and command communications. As international IT rerouting kicks in, the world grapples with a new battlefield: the ocean floor.
Phase 5: Strait of Hormuz: the oil artery chokes
By dawn, Iran's naval units lay naval mines and sink ships across the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint through which 20% of global oil flows. Two tankers report sonar anomalies. One clips a mine and is towed ablaze to Bandar Abbas. Insurance premiums for Gulf shipping spike overnight. Global oil prices soar. Brent crude passes $130/barrel. To escalate pressure, Iranian proxies fire short-range missiles and rockets at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE. A U.S. contractor is killed in Al Udeid. CENTCOM scrambles reinforcements. The Pentagon goes on high alert.
In this scenario in under 12 hours:
- Israel faces simultaneous bombardment from Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.
- Its nuclear site at Dimona is struck in direct proportionality to U.S. strikes on Iran’s Fordow.
- Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi forces tie down Israeli and U.S. resources in four theatres.
- Red Sea data cables are severed, crippling cloud traffic between Asia, Europe and the Gulf.
- Hormuz is mined, stalling oil transit and crippling energy markets.
This is not World War III. Not yet. It is a test of appetite: for pain, for pushback, and for strategic calculation.
Why it matters
The targeting of Dimona would not be a nuclear escalation, but a calibrated one. Iran has mirrored what was done to it: strategic infrastructure, not cities; conventional warheads, not radioactive payloads. Tehran is telling the world: You fired first, and we won’t go quietly. The wider message from Iran and its Axis of Resistance is unmistakable: Israel is not untouchable, and U.S. protection is not absolute. This war, started by Israel’s decision to strike without evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapon, has unleashed forces that may now be impossible to contain.
I sincerely hope I'm wrong about this but look at it from the Iranian side. The leaders of Iran may be a lot of things but they are not stupid. They only have to look at other nations in the middle East that were forced to give up their nuclear aspirations. They only have to look at what happened to Iran, Syria and Libya to see what a surrendered peace looks like: now basket case states with their leaders either killed or exiled. They'll clearly view a 'deal' as not in their interests and let's face it how can you make a deal with an Israel that is out of control and that no one is doing anything to rein in, and the US that is being led by a madman.
The world has gone mad. If you enjoyed reading this, please feel free to look at the rest of the blogs on www.TetleysTLDR.com. They're free to view, there's no paywall, they aren't monetised and I won't ask you to buy me a coffee. Also please free to share anything you find of interest, we only get the message out if people are aware of it. Just a leftie, standing in front of another leftie, asking to be read. All the best, Tetley
