We need to talk about Finland

NATO is sounding the alarm over a worrying escalation of Russian military activity along Finland’s eastern border, a development seen as a deliberate show of force in response to Finland’s recent entry into the alliance. Intelligence reports and satellite imagery indicate a rapid buildup of troops, equipment, and logistics infrastructure on the Russian side, raising fears of another front being tested in the Kremlin’s long-standing campaign to destabilise Europe’s eastern flank. With new divisions such as the 44th Army Corps forming near Karelia and key bases like Kamenka and Alakurtti expanding, NATO sees not just a regional threat—but a signal that Moscow is willing to extend its pressure campaign beyond Ukraine, directly challenging the alliance’s newest member.

The history between Finland and Russia is marked by tension, war, and a complex dance of independence and influence. For centuries, Finland was a battleground between Sweden and Russia, eventually becoming a Grand Duchy under Russian rule in 1809. 

Although Finland retained a degree of autonomy during this time, Russian attempts to integrate the territory more tightly into the empire during the late 19th and early 20th centuries stirred strong nationalist sentiments.Finland declared independence in 1917, amid the chaos of the Russian Revolution. But peace didn’t last long. In 1939, the Soviet Union invaded Finland in what became known as the Winter War. Despite being vastly outnumbered, the Finns mounted a fierce resistance and maintained their independence, though they ceded significant territory. Later, during the Continuation War (1941–1944), Finland aligned with Nazi Germany against the USSR to reclaim lost land, a decision that remains controversial. After WWII, Finland adopted a policy of neutrality known as "Finlandization"—officially non-aligned but careful not to antagonize Moscow. This tense balancing act defined Finland’s foreign policy throughout the Cold War, making its 2023 NATO accession a historic rupture with its past posture.

Finland has been neutral since the end of the Russo-Finnish war but has always had a wary eye on its larger neighbour.  Even before Finland joined NATO it had a robust civil defence infrastructure and both this and it's military readiness are central to its national security strategy, especially given its extensive border with Russia.

The Finnish Defence Forces (FDF) comprise the Army, Navy, and Air Force, with the Border Guard operating under the Ministry of the Interior but capable of integration into the FDF during wartime. As of 2023, Finland maintains approximately 24,000 active-duty personnel, with a wartime strength projected at 280,000 troops. GlobalData+3Defense Advancement+3turpopankki.fi+3

Finland's artillery capabilities are notably substantial, with an arsenal of 700 howitzers, 700 heavy mortars, and 100 multiple rocket launchers, making it the largest artillery force in Western Europe.  The air force operates 62 F/A-18 combat aircraft, set to be replaced by 64 F-35 aircraft in 2026 under the HX Fighter Program. Wikipedia

Finland's civil defence system is designed to protect the civilian population from armed conflict and other emergencies.  The country has approximately 50,500 civil defence shelters with space for about 4.8 million people, primarily located in large cities like Helsinki.  These shelters are equipped to provide protection against explosions, radiation, and hazardous substances Sisäministeriö+1Wikipedia+1Valtioneuvosto+1ECHO+1ECHO+1WIRED+1

Under the Rescue Act, civil defence shelters must be built in buildings exceeding certain size thresholds, ensuring widespread availability.  In the event of a threat, authorities are responsible for warning the population, directing evacuations, and managing shelter operations. pelastustoimi.fi+1Turvallisuus+1Turvallisuus

This comprehensive approach to civil defence reflects Finland's commitment to preparedness and resilience in the face of potential threats.

https://www.temet.com/solutions-and-services/shelters-and-hardened-facilities

Russia's military buildup along Finland's border can be seen in this context as a direct response to Finland's accession to NATO in April 2023. This move has significantly altered the security dynamics in Northern Europe, prompting concerns within the alliance.  

Following Finland's NATO membership, Russia has initiated several military developments near the Finnish border:

• Troop Deployments: Russia has increased its military presence along the border, with estimates suggesting a potential doubling or tripling of troops compared to pre-Ukraine war levels.
• Infrastructure Enhancements: Significant upgrades to rail lines and the construction of new military facilities have been reported in regions adjacent to Finland, indicating preparations for rapid troop movements and sustained military operations. Defence Blog
• Formation of New Units: The establishment of the 44th Army Corps and the 6th Combined Arms Army's 69th Motor Rifle Division near the Finnish border underscores Russia's commitment to bolstering its military capabilities in the region. Newsweek

NATO perceives Russia's actions as a strategic challenge to the alliance's eastern flank:Sweden in EU and NATO

• Potential for Aggression: Intelligence assessments suggest that Russia maintains detailed plans for potential operations against NATO's eastern members, including Finland, the Baltics, and Norway. Euromaidan Press
• Hybrid Warfare Tactics: Russia's use of non-conventional methods, such as orchestrating migrant flows to destabilize border regions, has raised alarms about the potential for hybrid warfare strategies.
• Testing NATO's Resolve: Recent incidents, including the removal of buoys in Estonian waters and proposals to revise sea borders with Finland, are viewed as attempts by Russia to probe NATO's unity and response mechanisms. The Telegraph

In response to the perceived threat, Finland has undertaken several initiatives:

• Border Barrier Construction: A 200-kilometer fence along the Russian border is under construction, equipped with surveillance systems to monitor and control cross-border movements. Reuters
• Military Readiness: Finland has increased its military preparedness, with a focus on rapid mobilisation and integration with NATO forces.
• Public Engagement: There has been a surge in civilian participation in national defence training programs, reflecting heightened public awareness and commitment to national security.

It is widely believed in military circles that if Russia is emboldened by a favourable peace deal in Ukraine, it will not stop there.  In the same way that Russia saw Ukraine and Georgia as 'wayward' parts of the Russian empire, so it sees Finland, the Baltic States and Poland in the same light.  

As a direct response to this sabre rattling, both Sweden and Finland joined NATO. According to Jane's, a military publication, in a significant development, NATO conducted its first flight of the Northrop Grumman RQ-4D Phoenix high-altitude long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) along the Finnish-Russian border on 13 September 2023. This mission underscores NATO's commitment to monitoring and understanding the security dynamics in the region. Default

Furthermore, Finland has opened its airspace to allied intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. On 23 March 2023, a U.S. Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint signals intelligence aircraft flew the length of the Finnish-Russian border, highlighting the deepening cooperation between Finland and its allies. Default

Russia's military activities near Finland's border represent a significant shift in the regional security landscape. NATO's concerns about potential aggression and hybrid warfare tactics underscore the importance of vigilance and preparedness among member states. Finland's proactive measures demonstrate its commitment to national defence and the collective security of the alliance.

In short, Finland is not only well armed, but it is ready.  No sane person wants a hot war with Russia, but we are already involved in hybrid warfare with the Kremlin.  It would no doubt be catastrophic for all involved and any incursions into NATO countries would invoke article 5, now highly likely not to involve the US.   With one of the largest artillery forces in Western Europe, a conscript-based system capable of mobilising 280,000 troops, and a civil defence infrastructure that could shelter nearly the entire population, Finland stands as one of NATO's most prepared frontline states. Its rapid procurement of advanced weapons systems, integration into NATO's surveillance network, and deep public commitment to national defence send a clear message: should tensions escalate further, Finland will not be caught off guard. It is a nation long accustomed to watching its eastern border, and one now fully backed by the collective defence of the NATO alliance.

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